All right folks we should be live if you can just give me a quick audio check in the chat that you can hear my voice okay and that you can see my screen just give me a quick confirmation thank you all right excellent good to be back it'sThe 5th of October 2023 the time is 1000 p.m. BST in the UK I'm your host Trader EXO once again and uh in this stream we'll cover Bitcoin hopefully this time we'll keep it nice and short okay 20 minutes or so and we should be wrapped up as alwaysBefore we proceed I just want to say a special thank you to Prime X BT once again for sponsoring the live streams it's a platform that I've been using for the best part of 2 and a half years and I've been partnered with them for theBest part of two and a half years as well as always anything said in today's video is not Financial advice it is just my view of the market and don't forget you can get up to a $7,000 bonus deposit if you use my referral Link in theDescription at the end in the end of the video you'll see in the description link and don't forget to hit the like And subscribe and as always I don't have any paid groups or Services everything I do for you guys is free on YouTube and uh majority of the posting happens onTwitter although I have uh cut back significantly from post posting on Twitter too much now that we're um in Q4 so uh let's kick off straight away first things first let's start on the high time frame so last week what did we talk about if you recall okayPrice is around about here 26.2 26.3 okay that was the level where price was trading the one key aspect I talked about in fact there's two let's just take it back and if we just bring up the replay tool I think we're around about here it was last Friday FridayThe I can't remember what it was Friday the 29th maybe I think so okay what what I spoke about specifically was again when you look at the weekly chart here okay I talked about the fact that this is not really an area where you want to be shorting around here okay because youAre into this level of Sr okay and this is our key mid level okay you can mark it with two lines if you want as your Zone okay doesn't really matter I prefer to use zonal areas and then single line for execution but this was the key pointThe key takeaway from last week week was before we had this up candle was look at the number of Wicks 1 2 3 4 5 this particular Wick taking out all the previous lows from several weeks ago okay and then I covered specifically right that we should see a push back upInto the moving averages between what between 27.1 and 28.1 was the level that I had marked out let's just Mark out 28.1 okay I talked about that where the moving averages were okay we'll come to the moving averages in a second the third thing I talked about is that look althAlthough I'm not really a patterns type of person I'm more of a structural type of Trader this to me kind of signifies well look you've got this slow drift down rally drop it wouldn't surprise me to see something like this okay wave we've got shoulder head another shoulderAnd eventually some point it gets rejected you're looking for that breakdown once it gets under there then we can talk about lower prices but until that happens we just need to focus with the task ahead of us that price is above the 25k level it's St still trading within this range that's beenEstablished since March we've been here for almost 6 months now so again it's just a pure Traders environment there's nothing really to swing everything is very much a short time frame you've got to get your contexts right you can't be holding on to positions unless you'reJust looking to hold spot which is fine personally if you're looking to trade this you've got to get in and out of your trades very very quickly or you've got to cut if you're offside or when you're in profit understand where you're wrong very very quickly so there are theThree key points that I had from last week now obviously I talked about as well with start on the weekly that we wanted to see a push-up above the 12 and the 21 if we get back below the 1221 what does that mean that means there's aCourse of concern with price that if price was supp push up there's your 1221 and had price got back under or if it gets back under that is a sign of weakness as far as I'm concerned just like we had previously over here very shortlived deviation Above ThisRange back under the EMAs that's your confirmation of weakness and we could see lower prices further down okay kind of how we saw in this environment here back in February 2020 classic example you you can see all these examples here where price trades above the 122 onWeekly uh EMAs but it's very shortlived once it gets back under that's a cal concern every single time okay and again here gets over gets under sells off so that's kind of where my head was at and it still is to to a large extent simplyBecause of the fact that well we haven't lost that level just yet it is holding up as support and just taking it a step back this is the 12 and the 21 weekly EMA let's also look at the monthly chart okay the monthly level was at 27.9 28k the 12Monthly EMA was at 27 now let's run it forward to see where we are today okay what's happened since let's start off on the high time frame first of all on the monthly what's happened here you've got this strong level of resistance bring in um sorry then go to the weekly and againIt's just holding a support it's taking out this Range High over here or swing high that we marked out but it's still holding a support now bring in the 200 and the 21 weekly EMES what do you have here you've got the 200 acting as resistance you've got the21 weekly Ma not EMA me acting as resistance green weekly 21 purple 200 weekly me resistance can't find acceptance above it just yet support 12 and 21 weekly em EMAs okay so we are in this phase where there is a level of indecision car seem to find acceptanceAbove 20K car seem to find acceptance below 27.1 call it 27.2 so that's currently where we are there's nothing immediately clear looking at this from a high time frame perspective now it wouldn't surprise me given that we've seen an slf on equities dollars ripped higher bond yields have pushed up highTo the 5% on the on the longer end maybe there some form of relief and if there is going to be a form of relief in the market and again any shorting opportunities you have to be very very careful because we could see a case where look I talked about the12 and the 21 weekly EMAs if you look at where they're currently at it's at that 27.3 level it's still holding then Dro to the dailies these are still trending up so if there is to be any weakness ideally this whole area here this demand zone is going to be key anyPullbacks into here and continuation as a higher high is a case that we could see a move back up into 29k all right that's kind of where my heads are so again everything I'm doing or everything I'm trading is very very short time frame I'm not holding tradesFor more than 48 hours it's literally if I get a good execution and price starts pushing away I will take profit or at least 50% of my tradeoff and pay myself okay this isn't the environment that I'm looking to take some big swing trades is the volatility is very very low onBitcoin at this moment in time and I believe it will continue to do so so again just to wrap up there with the moving averages it wouldn't surprise me and I think many people will get again vocally bearish if this happens where if you look at Market structure here there's yourLow there's your lower high okay there's your higher low there's your higher high so essentially if price comes back into this Zone here and holds doesn't break structure or even if it's shortlived and spikes and closes back above it may still continue to drift higher again into that pattern that I've talked aboutIf you recall where you could see something like this and then eventually back up and then you get the cell off back down okay so that's kind of what what I'm leaning towards is if this is going to hold then we may see some drift and eventually run these highs get backBelow this key mid level okay there's that key mid level of the range there's the range highs there is the range lows you're looking for that push into that range quarter in the upper bound maybe run these highs here once it gets back inside I will look to sell that getBelow the mid I think it's game over we go back down to the range lows but the like I said um that to me is more of the bullish scenario shortterm bullish I don't really like to call it bullish or bearish it's just a range bound price action and we'll talk aboutTrade setups next but is that clear from a high time frame context as to what I'm looking at with the moving averages what my reasoning is and again if anybody is you know like I said bullish or extremely bullish or or thinking about 34k or 40K you've got to ask yourselfWell at which point are you wrong and for me that would be very clear that if you get the death cross play out on the 12 and the 21 weekly EMA I think it's going to be lights out out and then add to that if we get back below the monthlyOpen then that for me increases the probability that we will continue trading lower down over the coming weeks but like I said it's it's Thursday today Friday tomorrow I suspect we won't really see a great deal of price action just more chop and continuation weekendsTake the bre take a day off take a weekend off enjoy time with your family friends um nothing exciting is going to happen on bitcoin as far as I'm concerned okay let's move on to the range now the key thing to remember here is let's mark out the monthly opens weHave the August monthly open here let's do that in purple we also have sorry that was September monthly open not August we also have the October monthly open let's get over this indicator so again if I've if if you've understood what I've said with the 200 weekly moving average isWhere it's at that 28k level okay we broke below the level pushed up against it and it's also that 21 weekly moving average level 28k looking at the chart here you've got this key level or in a line to Define this as a range bar area because we'veNot had any acceptance of price Above This level what do I mean by acceptance essentially High time frame acceptance daily closes above this then you're looking for the mid level acceptance up of there you'd have to argue that price could potentially go back to round aboutThat 293 K level okay now if you recall I talked about 23 27.3 or 27.1 27.2 being a key level that if there is a pullback back down into this level how would I look to trade this personally because it's not at the extremities ofThe range or the or the mid level or the range eyes it is still kind of in no man's land for me I again I wouldn't really be be jumping into this trade if it sets up but if there was a long scenario and and and again I'm justGoing to be very explicitly clear here it's not one that I'd be looking to trade but if there is a long scenario you've got this as your low you've got this as your swing higher low so you're really looking for price to respect this entire Zone here if there is aPullback into 26.3 26.4 and it holds and it reclaims a monthly that for me is the trigger to go long from 27 back into 28.5 and at that point I think the probability AB ility is that well if you look at this drift we're probably going to get that driftUp into 29k okay but for now you just take it to level let price you can either long off this Zone here because your invalidation now is what is September monthly open so if you want to take the aggressive long if we get a pullback and you think this willContinue drifting higher this is the the level where you want to be executing because your your inv validation in this point at this point is a monthly open of September and also to add Confluence to this is that you've got to see a very quick reaction because you don't want toSee price hovering below the 12 and the 21 weekly EMA for too long because you're going to get that death cross rolling over momentum is to the downside which dictates that the probabilties that we could just roll over and break these uh range levs that we've got hereWe've already had one test two three a fourth test of this level is never good with the moving averages so if you are going to take a a p a pullback long from this level you've you've got to see a reaction from it fairly quickly otherwise it's a cause for concern soAgain it's not a setup that I would take personally but if I was forced to take a setup that would certainly be it now again where price is I wouldn't be looking to take long specifically from this level here the question is where do you put your stops you know yeah youCould get away with the tight stop but at the end of the day I'm looking to trade price how I I would trade it and for me the obvious setup here I've had one short off this level here I've had a second short off this level here I'veCovered half we we are in a very very tight range volatility is suppressed so again you can't be looking to get swing trades off everything for me is a 1 hour on the 30-minute chart in terms of levels of how of how I'm looking to trade so now moving forward I've coveredThe long scenario okay does that make sense if you get that deep pullback you want to see September monthly open hold you don't mind a swing fail of these lows here but it's got to get acceptance very quickly back above there's your long trigger you're you're wrong belowThe monthly open you want to see price reclaimed October monthly open given the deviation of the downside which would would dictate that I think we see higher prices into 29k this however is a key area where you want to do your business all right that's your invalidation belowIt execution above it deviation of August month uh October monthly open confirms that we should see prices taking out at least this High filling in a lot of this and then there you've got your your your daily suppli on the up candle the origin of this entire moveOkay so at least push back up into the into 29s possibly out of squeeze uh if if Shorts you know do get squeezed hard then we could see an overshoot to 29.9 now the short setup what if we don't get the pullback what if price continues trading higher well like ISaid the risk to reward for me doesn't make sense do I want to be longing into resistance you've seen twice what's happened to anybody and everybody who got excited at the range highs Bitcoin is going to 30k 40K the usual crowd comes out and what happens well the soonGot quiet thereafter same again happened early today you got this previous swing high on the absolute literal tick and again this was a level that I fed I've taken 50% off down at 27.4 I've left the remainder in my stop is just above this level here I'm already inProfit now what I did last um earlier in the week if you recall price pushing up into this level here let's talk about execution why did I take the short on Monday There's a few questions uh on the timeline EXO why did you take the tradeWhy did you not wait for price to get back under this blue level before executing and like I said many many times execution is dynamic just because I I did a stream on Friday saying that if you get a swing feel Above This level here and it gets back inside yeahGenerally you want a short but being a Trader being an aggressive Trader and looking for very good execution or points of execution that give me a very clear invalidation level if you've understood anything I've taught you you over the last several months this is the basics of a rangeYou've got your Range High you've got your mid-range and you've sorry you've got your range high range lot and then you've got your mid-range right if price not just because it's a mid-range but if price from a contextual perspective right has come off the range lows and is drifting up drifting upDrifting up with no real momentum and it wicks any any swing points over here and it just trades above the range uh mid-range gets back inside what do you think I'm going to do of course I'm going to take the entry with the stop there because I know if it getsAcceptance back up with the mid I've got to get out the trade so that was the reason for taking this particular trade in this instance on Monday if you go to the 15minute of the 5minute chart this is how I execute all right now againLook left first of all what did I talk about when you look at this from a range perspective you got your range highs you got your range lows let me just go to the daily chart okay and you've got the mid-range this is a swing point that IWant to see to get taken out price rejected from where before here and here okay then you got this where price acted as a level support so clearly this is a key pivotal level this is where I want to do my business zoom into the 15minute chart let's bring on the replayTool right now if when you look at this blue level here and I know this is what some of the questions that people ask me if you look at this level over here let's just get this tight there's the highs okay generally look at the context ofThe move short squeeze okay shorts got ripped a new hole this wasn't bullish buying this wasn't aggressive spot buying this was on a Sunday night shorts getting pushed offside and you get one huge candle to the upside within a minute that to me never ends well okay let's run ItForward on a 15-minute chart you've got the swing fail above it's closed back inside but look at Price when you look at this structure very rarely right after a big impulsive move do you see price do something like this rip up the high and then dump okay very rarely do you see thatHappen you and again this is where I talk about uh trading patterns and structures you generally want to see some form of distribution to give you give you an uh give you some form of execution here okay so looking at this I wasn't under the impression that this isReady to sell off right continuation higher now this is the key level I've got two levels this zone or this Zone knowing that this is a high time frame mid level and this is a key swing level I've got two ways I can get on board of the tradeNow but I don't want to rush into it just yet number one price is rejecting of this level that's fine you've got this as a key Sr level here this this block here okay the down candle which caused price to rush up push up okay this is your key level ofSupport it's got to get back below here for me to have conviction that this is ready to go lower down into support it's not breaking down okay it's holding up it's pushing back up again had I executed this and I'm seeing this type of price action and let's just assume that I'veTaken this as a swing fail okay the minute this starts pushing back above here what do you think I'm going to do do you think I'm going to hold the trade or do you think I'm going to get out for a for a small scratch because I know ifIt just pushes up and then gets back inside okay this becomes a low time frame range and once it gets under the range I'm ready to ride it lower down okay but I don't have that conviction in this instance with the momentum with the F that price is still drifting higherAnd then looking at the order FL in the footprints I'm not seeing any aggressive buying trapped up here okay let's turn it Forward there you go if this was me I would have been stopped out had I taken the trade now we're talking now we're getting closer to that level okay now I'mInterested at this point I do not know if price is going to spike here get back inside but this is going to be key for me this swing point is going to be key for me all I'm looking for is a way to understand where I can pivot from off aLevel I've already got a high time frame mid level I've got a swing level here I'm going to use this as a way to decide whether I need to get out the trades or stay in the trade okay but the key point is if this can give me a swing fail upHere then that's going to act as my invalidation level for now I don't have anything clear it's either get below here I take a short push above there get back inside I'll take the short stop here but it has to get back under this level okay and the momentum is also veryVery important here we've had one drive this could potentially be a second Drive okay before we go a three drives push into resistance just P the level there okay you can see that at this point I took a trade okay I had two attempts at this there's my execution Point numberOne all right so price is under that level I've executed and just recall what I said I remember taking this trade I had two attempts at this okay so I will always nail it the first time around I'm playing the probabilities now you see price drifting back up I'm hoping that this levelHolds what's happened I've had to cut the trade okay now it's giving me a swing fill above and if you go to this on a 3 minute or a 5 minute chart you will have enough time to execute let's go to a three minute chart even a one minuteChart I'm looking at this on a one minute chart what do I see I see price getting acceptance above this swing High over here okay let me just clear the chart for you guys let me just get rid of all the scribbles make it very very verySimple there's going to be too many scribbles to get rid of here but we we'll we'll do it and I'm just going to wrap up on this point because I want you to understand just the basics of reading price action before you even look at anything likeOrderflow etc etc understand how to get out of a trade when to to get back in again understand your reason your logic of thinking okay when you can do that when you can Master the execution of a scalper as a as a low Time Low time frame High time frame slen swing TraderThis is where your execution skills come to come into effect so look already I Define that this is going to be key for me we got the swing fill got back inside I shorted 28.4 I said if price gets Above This level again under the midI've got to get out the trade Okay so getting at 28.4 when I see price push up like this I do not know what the is going to happen next it could just rip up higher do I want to eat in draw down without a stop no I don't okay soWatching price when I'm executing don't think oh I've just opened a trade on that's it I'm just going to walk away from the desk I want to be in the comfort zone I need to see price get back below this blue level and then I'm then I'm relax then I'll tighten myStops then I think right now I've just I've managed my execution I'm in the trade I'm in the the green now I can just sit back in the chair and just observe what price is doing okay so that's the thought process that I had one attempt I got this wrong the secondAttempt push up guess back inside guess what there's a deviation there's my trigger 28.3 uh 28. 333 or something is what I shared on the timeline that's what I got back in now I'm saying to myself right it's had one attempt it's had two attempts it's finally taken outThis and all this here anybody who shorted this has just been squeezed out here now let's drop as long as this mid level holds here my stop is at the high invalidation is is here because if price now gets back above the mid I've got to start thinking about cutting because itCould continue higher there's my execution here what does price do it sells off lower down retraces most of this move here into this ksr level okay I took some profit here and I Clos out the remainder where today uh when price start to started to reclaim back AboveThis level here okay the minute we got back Above This level I have to cut the remainder of my position all right and that was that and then today's execution was basically well guess what there's that key Sr level again from the left hand side I'm going to use this as my contextAgain similar principles okay the minute price pushed up into this level here you see that once okay watch this let me just replay this um section here here's how I did it and again this is without order flow this is without any of those tools whenI want to use them I'll use them I use them for five probably 5% of the time when I'm really trading or pushing some big size okay but in these environments I'm not willing to push size because it is very very choppy it doesn't take much to push price around let's run itForward you get this still nothing clear I'm looking at this price I'm thinking can it take these highs here okay look at these highs to those left on the 15-minute chart I want to see these get taken okay this key Sr level can we run these stops here we're close but we'reNot close enough just tag it anything and and I'm and I'm going to think about execution boom there we go okay the minute this happens again drop onto the three minute chart one minute chart whatever it is you want to do the minute this happens here what am I looking for a deviationOr a swing fi of this tags it there sells off Underside retest I'm in the trade okay once this rejects from this level and rolls off 28 uh two 28,5 was my execution so my execution point I think was round about here so I've waited on the one minute chart forPrice to do this give me a way to get on board and I'm in the trade 1 2 3 I know exactly where am I wrong where am I wrong above the blue level if it gets above I'm out the trade there's my execution what am I looking for price toCome back down into this consolidation which led to the move up that's where I want to take my profit or the bulk of my profit anything lower down is is a nice sweet bonus okay when you think about the risk to reward of this I've essentially set up and IShould wrap up in two minutes because I said 20 minutes I've essentially set up for what a three hour trade let's turn it forward there's my three trade taken off half okay taken off half already and cover the remainder lower down all right I've probably got a quarter of myPosition left open at this stage so the key to trading the lesson in all of this is understanding execution getting really tight if you can master your execution on the low time frame based upon High time frame levels and you cut when you're offside because you know you can always get back inAgain then then you're in a very good position of trading okay then you can start looking at order flow then you can start looking at Footprints understand what the you're doing first and foremost because if you if you want to look at order flow and Footprints butYou don't know where to quit your trade what good is that get your price action principles right first keep practicing and you will be in a much better position when it comes to execution and again just because I trade on high time frame levels doesn't mean I'm waiting for high timeFrame levels to execute I'm on the 5 minute the 3 minute the 1 minute looking for ways to get into the trade if I have to cut once or twice I do not give a okay to me it's about all right I could have taken a trade here I'm goingTo cut this okay but the minute it gets back inside guess what I'm back in the trade sometimes you have to take these small scratches to get into a position now I don't recommend it but personally I Market my entries and I scale out withLimit orders all right cuz I do get ask EXO do you leave limit orders in no I never leave limit orders in unless it's a macro chart like a onee uh chart on Sal I'm looking to buy $112 fine I'll give you some limit orders but on on on a day trading basisOn a shortterm trading basis absolutely not all right I'm going to leave you with that guys I hope that helps with today's session but remember that in the environment that you're in you are still in a very very choppy environment and again I've just shown you how I got a 3rTrade off a high time frame level looking at the 15-minute chart execution Target and it's run even lower down okay so overall I've creamed three and a half hour three and a half hour today and all I'm looking for is to total for this week for me7 I had toTrade on Monday I shorted trb I've shorted Bitcoin twice I've shorted link so I'm already up at 7R my monthly Target is eight so for me now I'm not looking to force any trades for the rest of the of the week and when you set yourself small goals of just beingObjective setting up for two hour a week sometimes you'll exceed your goals next week I might have a I may I may have a week I might take a two hour loss and back down to 5 Hour again but it's all about taking on trades where you knowThere's going to be a good reaction and understanding where you're wrong all right that's the takeaway from today's session ran over by 6 s minutes it's halfast 10 now I said 20 minutes but um I hope that helps and uh I'll catch you on Saturday we'll we'll do a a longerStream on Saturday where it's specifically going to be ethereum and ALT coins but apart from that guys hope you've enjoyed today's session God bless and have a Fab week have a Fab Friday and a weekend I'll catch you on Saturday take care

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