What's up everybody Michael Silva here we got ourselves a 95% probability that this is going to be happening. What am I talking about I'm talking about distribute Saurus…now that's just a distribution curve That's what we're gonna discuss on today's stock marketBrief As we look at the weekly expected moves and where the cues are and where the spies are in relation to it. Now today we did have a two standard deviation move on the daily, timeframes And I'll show you that for the QS at least. Now we're coming into FridayRight The 10th trading day of the weekend This is typically from a pre election year seasonality standpoint is where we could find potential topping points. That doesn't mean it's going to be. You know before Sure. But we have been tracking this and it's been working quite well overallNow in yesterday stock market we've we talked about the mega is how they were inside of their expected moves but a lot of other products were outside. So in order for the market to go up higher we needed to see these names start to perform And well as you can see asI flip it over, boom we started seeing more come outside of their weekly expected moves. You can really see that here on the heat map heat map Google was up 4.3 6%. Which that actually happened to be… one of the trade ideas we posted yesterday If you're in the discord group I'll shareIt really quick. I didn't add a slide for it but do it on the fly. You can see here This was I think posted yeah. Yesterday at 6:33 AM. And what we saw here on the weekly timeframe was this this price action was wedging into the 20.Period moving average or 20 EMA And it was still above the all-time high anchored V walk. And we'd saw just a nice big move overall come from that today So good stuff If youWere able to join in on that fun, if we take a look at the 11 sectors that make up the S and P 500. The only one in the red today was energy but you can see tech and XLC theyDid step up their game, really helping the S and P 500 in the QS Overall Now what from a macro standpoint drove it drove it Well we had PPI it came in at 0.1% The consensus was point. 2% So we're seeing some lower inflation numbers there. And then we had a initial joblessClaims as well Come in at 2 37 we're consensus was to. 50 now what did that do for overall the rate hike while we still have a 92% probability that the fed is going to be raising, this month? However we did see some subtle changes on the September where we saw slowSubtle decrease again, in the percent, probability of going another 25 basis point hike. And we saw a subtle increase here, that we might see a 25 basis point rate cut. that's pretty much all the note there as far as that goes, what happened to the 10-year yield The 10-yearYield really took a nosedive today in this rapid rate of change really does help out. various growth sectors Typically when it rises at a rapid rate of change it hurts it And when it falls, it helps it.But as you can see as we've seen this rapid rises right up to here, didn't really do much to impact the overall markets perhaps. this has some more room to go or this breakout was potentially just a bull trap as we quickly shot up to 4.1% you can see as far as theCurve goes the 10-year three month as a three-month has kind of just hold steady up here. That curve is getting deeper inverted to 171 basis points. And then we're pretty much flat there. 83 basis points in Verde and the 10 and two.The another big mover was the dollar This continues to kind of just sink off. A lot of people are calling for this to be the end of it But remember when you see these big sell offs you typically get reflexive bounces and this these type of moves are helping outObviously various assets right This goes down. The S and P 500 goes up but take a look at oil Oil is also coming into the 20 day moving average or sorry 200 day moving average. This thing has also been bullying ending up like a rocket ship And same with copper copperHad this big sell off, but these last couple of days where the gold were dollar got hot hit. We've seen copper really rise there too Now. This is the distribution group We're going to happen to the S and P 500 and the QS beforeWe sign off today, now remember one standard deviation So this is the the daily expect to move weekly expected move levels W we share, and there's a sick. chance that price is going to close within this So for example, if the asset that we're talking about is at a hundredDollars and the expected move is plus five right That means we can potentially come out here to 1 0 5 or potentially down here to 95. And we would say price you know, The market is implying that that's what the forward looking risk is. Now Remember that's only a 68% probabilityWhich is above 50% So it's good. But when you get to two standard deviations there's a 95% probability. So if we take a look at what happened today on the QS today we did get outside right ofThe two Sigma move and you could see that's the daily expected move We went over yesterday and look where we opened. We opened basically while we opened right here and we came down and touched it, it tagged it And then we started breaking away from it. And this is what happensWhen you see dynamic hedging take place where all of a sudden you're outside of what the market anticipated as far as a risk goes and same with the weekly. The expected move and then they have to hedge right The more buying goes into more buying and you can see a reallyPush outside of it. Hitting to the D outside of the daily. two Sigma standard deviation which is even a smaller, you know probability of, that actually taking place And if we take a look now at the updated daily expected movesWe're looking at 3 80, 2 31 to the upside 3 75 99 to the downside. We still haven't tagged the low of this anchor view op so that'd be one to watch. And that's right at the lowOf currently at the low of the daily expected move which is 3 75. We're clearly outside of the weekly expected move. Now there's one other line on my screen. Right here, 3 79, 88 Take a look there That is theTwo standard deviation move And look at how price came into that today. Boom That's the weekly. And then we started selling off So if we start getting outside of that start looking at 3 80, 2 31. If we're going to get that additional push, we have a negative divergenceBuilding there on the RSI. This is not moves that I'd necessarily chase You'd want to look for pullbacks. Remember though overall we got above the quarter today anchored view up We said when we're above it, it's bullish and you got to get above the five day moving average and have it startedClimbing So we're bullish, but we're extended. So you even if we fall all the way back into this to three 70, that could still be a good opportunity to potentially play bounces back up and continue an uptrend So overall in very bullish context right now, although gettingQuite frothy, we take a look at the spy. We didn't hit a two standard deviation move on the daily expected move, but you can see we came up we opened, came down a little bitAnd then you can see how price. Just hugged it for a big bulk of the day in a very tight format. So this right here there's not much trade opportunities, but if you break the range right and it was within trading within the 15 minute range here, if you break the rangeTo the upside it can be very bullish. If you break it to the downside it could get pretty bearish and potentially close the gap where we broke above it. And we came up a little bit higher Now, where did this price action stop at Where did it get halted? Right hereAt 4 50 41 which is the two Sigma move for the weekly expected move Now going into tomorrow. Four 40. to the downside 4 52 to the upside That's the daily expected move. And even we come down here that would be closing outside of the weekly expected move And remember. We're still above…The quarter to date and the five day moving average which is now inclining So as long as this continues to incline and price comes down maybe we even undercut it. We can maybe you turn back up through it. It is in bullish contexts So just be aware of that until youKnow until we start breaking back down right. How we broke down here and it starts to flatten out, came above broke down. It told us to pause And then if you got back above, right over here above the quarter date and above the five day moving average you're lookingPretty good Right now we do have that negative divergence That's also building there as well. if you take a look at the pin comments I have some links there I have a swing trader community This is where I post my trade ideas like that Google trade. you can go back and you canLook through the history of all my charts that I posted there. I do updates on my watch list I have monthly expected moves quarterly expected news weekly daily zone So I post all of those there. I'm on the discord If you sign up to Patriot and you got to syncDiscord I don't post on the Patrion platform. People can sometimes get confused about that, but it's only nine bucks a month so it's not an arm and a leg or you can even get it cheaper pay $90 You get access for the entire year.This is not an alert service That's not what I do. I provide charts and I show you things that are coiling up tightening and potentially can lead to good op risk to reward opportunities. And then you get access to obviously the community. I have the zones there too. I'm going to updateThis actually because I do, I do so much here for for nine bucks a month. And there's also a link to interactive brokers. if you want to take take a I look at their platform This is I'm actually moving all myStuff over to interactive brokers that something happened with my weeble trading set up just the other day where they froze me out of a trade. I'm not gonna even talk about it. I've been using them for a while and I've always liked them, but this one this one really irritatedMe What happened? but also what's cool here on interactive brokers they have a campus and if you click the campus button, it'll show you you know they'll have courses podcasts webinars, then they have some great articles that you can go over there too That's allFree. And then you can sign up for their light. Platform or even their more advanced platform and they do global stuff. and just a good platform overall And then the other one was a book map I get get discounts for the subscribersTo book map to this is the software that allows you to visualize certain levels Like for example today this level lit up right here It's been there all kind of day This was earlier in the trading session right at 4, 5, 5, 5 on E S and there's 539 orders there. And thisRight here these levels can act like magnets And as you can see we boom boom boom boom boom. Started coming up to that level We're just about there absorbing it. And we. Just right there did absorb it. And you could see what happened right at that four or 5,5, 5 level. We started to actually act as resistance once that liquidity was filled. So just overall just helpful trading software good brokerage And then obviously the community as well That's all I got for you everybody have a wonderful night and I'll see you back here,Friday or potentially a little bit later into the weekend See you later…

What's up everybody Michael Silva here is volatility getting ready to explode that's what we're talking about here on today is a very short and stock market brief coming into tomorrow we have fed Powell talking okay so today's price action overall was kind of muted except for one thing the NASDAQ was down onePercent and that was led heavily by the tech sector now as we discuss on the prior episode if the 10-year yield Rises at a rapid rate of change that could put pressure on heavy growth names such as technology and also consumer discretionary which remained flat for that day nowAlso to call out the dollar right so the dollar has we had this uh piercing pattern right here that we discussed when it happened and now what we're seeing is what's known as three white soldiers right that's two three big green bars to the upside three white soldiers it's typically a bullishContinuation Candlestick pattern there's no guarantees in this but I figured I'd show you maybe what what it might look like so you could see bit three big bullish candles right there we pulled back and we started heading higher as a potential example now a reason I showYou that is because being that it is the dollar if we are going to head higher in the dollar we know that there's a negative correlation there with many assets I'm not going to dig too much into that in this episode because we talk in detail on prior episodes aboutThat this right here we talked about volatility potentially cooling up is it set to explode well this right here you know a lot of people give Flack about using technical analysis on things like the vix which I understand but I will call out you know contraction leads to to expansion expansion leads toContraction and you can see that across the board on various different assets including volatility and remember the like something like the Bollinger Bands is a volatility based indicator so you can see this big move down in the vix and you see price coiling up here getting pretty tight at a prior areaWhere we've seen support in the vix now I'm also calling out here in this green area where it's marked the tops of bear Market rally so you can see this bear Market rally where the vix came into Play This Bear Market rally in August where the vix came to play and then itStarted moving down this one right here bam it came up and then started moving back down and now we're here coiling up very tight so if this starts to explode further to the upside this could put more of a muted pause potentially on the S P 500. now remember there's it's not aPerfect negative correlation just because volatility is higher it's just telling us that there's a larger expected move in the markets remember volatility and the market can go up but there's typically a negative correlation there okay so let's go ahead and look at the summation index still pumping awayTo the upside starting to get a small little curl right there that negative Divergence is still it's just right in your face right you have a high to a higher high a high to a lower high so this may if we get some more downside and the dollar starts pumping up higherAnd the 10-year yield holds at that or moves higher this will probably in my opinion start curling over and within a short period of time we see that parabolic star uptick which could potentially identify a change in Trend which we have called out multiple times before now let's just take a quick lookAt the S P 500 we'll look at the spy on the 15 minute time frame price action close underneath the five-day moving average this is still inclining okay so as bearish as you want to be understand that it's still inclining however we do have a couple of things to watch out forGoing into tomorrow's trading session this could be a potential bear pennant which could take us down to where the lower expected move potentially more sometimes it cracks out underneath it and then we could come into a prior area of support and potentially make an intraday trade back up to the upsideRemember even if it comes down here fast the five-day moving average takes time to start curling back around now if we start breaking back Above This high and potentially this high that could actually send us up higher in the S P 500 this would start curling back aroundThe RSI would get back above 50 and then we'd have to start watching for it to get back above 70 for potential um you know the possibility for it to create a higher or sorry a lower high or a higher high we'll see what it plays out remember we also discussed thisPossibly still being a big flag pattern right here okay so let's continue on we'll look at the cues really quick also cues have a bearish type pennant pattern or potentially a descending triangle right here which is bearish but where are we we're right there above the inclining five-day moving average priceAction came back within this melt up channel that we've been seeing remember this could be still very well a flag here too right it just breaks down consolidating potentially moves up higher we cannot rule that out as a possibility so what you'd want to see isStart to start to break some of these little highs right here to potentially go for once again back to the top of that channel we start breaking down start watching the lower channel here along with the lower weekly expected move now really quick on the zones thisIs something that I share with the swing trading Community if you don't know what this is it's nine dollars a month and I give you a bunch of trade ideas it's a lot of charts a lot of different type of setups I I show my alerts on there I'mSorry actually let me reword that a lot of people think that this is the place where you go to just get your hand held that's not what this is you get access to a wonderful Community I I show what kind of charts that I'm looking at and IGive like pivot areas but I don't sit there and I don't give you uh you know I don't hold your hand through all the trades I only charge nine bucks a month okay or you can get even a discount it's like seven bucks a month if you just payAnnually give a lot of chart setups I give weekly expected moves on like 40 products I give zones not just here I give a lot more than that and I give also a links to my stock market indicator charts there as well now really quickly on the zones I want toCall out something the dollar right we have those three white soldiers so they started moving up further so this could be the start of a stronger move in the dollar but it is getting a little frothy here at the upper side of the zone youCan see 103.53 and the high is at 103.76 so this can start to turn back up we want to see higher highs higher lows that would bring the market obviously into more bearish uh area and you also have the 10-year yield also pushing up to the higher end there too as well notToo far from getting outside of it you can see 36.41 and we close at 36.34 so if this starts to continue to move up start to look at other Bond products right so if this starts going down things like potentially TLT right would potentially start to find its legs orYou can look at other fixed income products actually within the zones if you're in the patreon download The Zone document and I share a fixed income slide with a bunch of different products one that I'm looking at is ief so you can take a look at that there too asWell but one thing I also I want to call out is this little green guy down here this is XLE XLE has been getting crushed but I want to call out the chart accidentally really has not been getting crashed right so it hasn't been participating in 2023 our uh 2023 rightSo it's down on the year but really I mean it's just consolidating here right so we're coming in we're pulling in right so right Tech has been the main focus this could still very well just be wedging for a potential move higher now we're below the year to date anchoredV-wop you'd want to see it back above it and we're sitting here at a prior area as you can see of resistance and prior support so we're moving back within this zone so it's always possibility that we can just bounce within this range and come right back up which could create aPossibility for a nice trade setup or also if you want to be a little bit more patient wait for that year to Anchor v-wop price to reclaim that or if you even want to be more patient wait for price to tighten up and see what it doesAnd if it is continuing to get bullish wait for it to break this prior area of resistance up there as seen on the screen now I also want to call out oil right we had a gap down and we finished not quite through the 50 thrust line soYou know this is still a bullish reversal type candle as you can see we had some strong volume on the move down then we gap down and we finished you know 25 or so through this uh body candle body so this is a possibility ofA two bar reversal pattern but if it was a little bit stronger to the upside like that dollar move was that could potentially Mark a reversal there so we'll see how it follows through you can see we're pulling into a prior area of right support support right and itBounced from these levels it bounced on these levels and now we're putting in somewhat of a bullish candle there so if we do get a move here um this could open up the opportunity for a uh possibility of a good trade either intraday or or a small uh swingTrade that's all I got for you on today's episode everybody have a wonderful night

Understanding Market Volatility: A Comprehensive Analysis Market volatility is a term that often sends shivers down the spines of investors and traders. It refers to the rapid and significant price fluctuations in financial markets, which can be caused by various factors such as economic events, geopolitical tensions, or investor sentiment. In this article, we will […]