US natural gas futures eased about 1% on Friday on forecasts for milder weather and less demand next week than previously expected. That price decline occurred despite a reduction in output, record exports to Mexico and a rise in the amount of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas export Plants even though some plants were reduced for maintenance. Financial analysts said average gas output in the lower 48 US states has slid to 102.1 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record 102.3 billion in August. Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through October 14 except for some cooler near-normal days around October 7 to 11. With the weather expected to remain mostly mild, the analysts forecast US gas demand, including exports, would slide from 95.7 billion cubic feet Per day this week to 94.8 billion next week as power generators cut back on the amount of gas they need to burn to keep air conditioners humming. But with seasonally cooler weather coming and exports expected to rise, natural gas demand would climb to 95.8 billion cubic feet per day in Two weeks as heating demand increases. Pipeline exports to Mexico have risen to an average of 7.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, up from a record 7.1 billion in August. Analysts expect exports to Mexico to rise even higher in the coming months once New Fortress Energy’s Altamira liquefied natural gas export plant enters service. Gas flows to the seven big US LNG export plants have risen to an average of 12.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, up from 12.3 billion in August. That compares with a monthly record of 14 billion in April. That increase in LNG feed gas happened despite ongoing maintenance at Cove Point in Maryland and reductions at other plants, including Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana and Corpus Christi in Texas. Cove Point shut for about two weeks of maintenance on September 20. Europe gas prices rose to multi-week highs at the start of the week after an extension to Norwegian maintenance outages. Prices later on eased as some maintenance outages ended, though there were revisions in the maintenance schedule for October. As the risk of continued Australian disruption dissipates, concerns have shifted back toward Russian political risk. As gasoline and diesel exports have been curbed, there is some concern that similar measures could spread to other commodity classes. This, with the backdrop of supply issues in Europe, has encouraged further strength in TTF and JKM over the past week. Additionally, More tendering activities in the market put upward pressure on Asian prices, and analysts also expect Japanese buyers to enter the market soon. The Biden administration's five-year plan for offshore oil and gas leasing has raised eyebrows by featuring just three sales in the final four Years, with none scheduled for 2024 - the lowest in program history. This has disappointed both environmental groups and oil companies, who have conflicting views on the program's role in climate change and energy supply. Traditionally, these plans included more sales, usually ranging from 15 to 20, with none having fewer than 11. The schedule for leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska for 2024-2028 has faced delays and debates between environmentalists and drilling advocates. This plan deviates significantly from the Trump administration's 2018 proposal of 47 lease sales, Including areas like California and the Atlantic. However, it falls short of Biden's promise to end federal drilling to combat climate change, as legislation and court decisions require leasing for offshore wind power. The White House argues that oil lease sales are essential for its Ambitious wind energy goals. The Interior Department is legally obliged to create a national oil and gas leasing schedule every five years, but the previous plan expired in June 2022 amid heated debates. Last year's proposed plan contemplated zero to 11 lease sales, reflecting the ongoing energy-environment tension. Thank you for watching! Please Don't forget to support the channel if you enjoyed the video! See you in the next one!
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