Weekly Natural Gas Analysis and Forecast

Weekly Natural Gas Analysis and Forecast

US natural gas futures eased about 1% on Friday  on forecasts for milder weather and less demand   next week than previously expected. That price  decline occurred despite a reduction in output,   record exports to Mexico and a rise in the amount  of gas flowing to US liquefied natural gas export  Plants even though some plants were reduced for  maintenance. Financial analysts said average gas   output in the lower 48 US states has slid to 102.1  billion cubic feet per day so far in September,   down from a record 102.3 billion in August.  Meteorologists forecast the weather in the  Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than  normal through October 14 except for some cooler   near-normal days around October 7 to 11. With  the weather expected to remain mostly mild,   the analysts forecast US gas demand, including  exports, would slide from 95.7 billion cubic feet  Per day this week to 94.8 billion next week  as power generators cut back on the amount   of gas they need to burn to keep air conditioners  humming. But with seasonally cooler weather coming   and exports expected to rise, natural gas demand  would climb to 95.8 billion cubic feet per day in  Two weeks as heating demand increases. Pipeline  exports to Mexico have risen to an average of 7.2   billion cubic feet per day so far in September,  up from a record 7.1 billion in August. Analysts   expect exports to Mexico to rise even higher  in the coming months once New Fortress Energy’s  Altamira liquefied natural gas export plant  enters service. Gas flows to the seven big US   LNG export plants have risen to an average of 12.6  billion cubic feet per day so far in September,   up from 12.3 billion in August. That compares  with a monthly record of 14 billion in April.  That increase in LNG feed gas happened despite  ongoing maintenance at Cove Point in Maryland   and reductions at other plants, including  Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass in Louisiana   and Corpus Christi in Texas. Cove Point shut  for about two weeks of maintenance on September  20. Europe gas prices rose to multi-week highs  at the start of the week after an extension to   Norwegian maintenance outages. Prices later  on eased as some maintenance outages ended,   though there were revisions in the maintenance  schedule for October. As the risk of continued  Australian disruption dissipates, concerns have  shifted back toward Russian political risk. As   gasoline and diesel exports have been curbed,  there is some concern that similar measures   could spread to other commodity classes. This,  with the backdrop of supply issues in Europe,   has encouraged further strength in TTF  and JKM over the past week. Additionally,  More tendering activities in the market put upward  pressure on Asian prices, and analysts also expect   Japanese buyers to enter the market soon.  The Biden administration's five-year plan for   offshore oil and gas leasing has raised eyebrows  by featuring just three sales in the final four  Years, with none scheduled for 2024 - the lowest  in program history. This has disappointed both   environmental groups and oil companies, who have  conflicting views on the program's role in climate   change and energy supply. Traditionally, these  plans included more sales, usually ranging from  15 to 20, with none having fewer than 11. The  schedule for leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and   Alaska for 2024-2028 has faced delays and debates  between environmentalists and drilling advocates.   This plan deviates significantly from the Trump  administration's 2018 proposal of 47 lease sales,  Including areas like California and the Atlantic.  However, it falls short of Biden's promise to end   federal drilling to combat climate change,  as legislation and court decisions require   leasing for offshore wind power. The White House  argues that oil lease sales are essential for its  Ambitious wind energy goals. The Interior  Department is legally obliged to create a   national oil and gas leasing schedule every five  years, but the previous plan expired in June 2022   amid heated debates. Last year's proposed  plan contemplated zero to 11 lease sales,   reflecting the ongoing energy-environment  tension. Thank you for watching! Please  Don't forget to support the channel if you  enjoyed the video! See you in the next one!

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