Hey everybody it's Brian Shannon from alphat trends. net today's Friday the 3rd of November 2023 and we had a huge move in the market this week I for one didn't expect it uh we did come down to the anchored volume weighted average price from the 2022 low and closed thereUh just below it on Friday but uh from the start on Monday we gapped higher and then never looked back it was a pattern of higher highs and higher lows I was a little reluctant to accept that we were going to uh definitely have this type of rally um because that 5-day movingAverage was still declining as you know that's one of my primary intermediate term gauge so by the time the FED came around and we were up in this area I thought it was a little bit stretched I was able to squeeze some money out of it but I for one definitely underperformedThis week the NASDAQ was I'm sorry the S&P was up close to 6% uh the NASDAQ was up greater than 6% with their Russell 2000 up 7 and a half percent biotech's up 11% this week so again just a monster move and mainly from places where we've seen underperformance so now that we'veHad this big move what's next just because we might have missed a move or missed out on the bigger opportunity to make all that big headline money doesn't mean there aren't going to be opportunities in the next week ahead right now the S&P 500 today came up to the anchored volume weighted averagePrice from the year to dat high so that's that red line is that going to be resistance well as you know I always talk about levels of potential support and potential resistance I refer to them as levels of Interest such as the level of Interest over here last Friday was weWere down to that anchor but I wasn't going to be a buyer because we were still making lower highs and lower lows below the 5-day moving average now we're at a declining 50-day moving average in the anchored vwap from that Peak maybe we do this this is certainly aPossibility that uh we continue up through this level I didn't mean to draw it like that let's just get a straight line across there maybe we continue up through this level and then start to uh begin our pullback all I know is just because we're at this level doesn't meanI want to sell it short and I don't necessarily want to short short a pullback because we'll still be above a rising 5-day moving average so let's say we do something like this into next week and then we you know see a sharp selloff maybe a little bit weaker that 5-dayMoving average comes back up and then we'll look for some uh REM mergence of strength we'll put an anchor off of this perhaps that's how it comes together going back to the inverted Head and Shoulders pattern we spoke about a week or so ago this you know we break aboveThat level people will say hey it's going to or maybe just go close the gap a gap closure would be a perfect place for this Market to then begin to sell off and then reload for the next move up the thing is it's okay to miss moves isLong as you're not positioned short during something like this and adding to a short or initiating short positions that's where the real damage gets done to be on the sidelines or to be involved in a smaller way you can't beat yourself up for that no one gets all the movesAll the time I know I certainly don't and this is a great example of that and I want to point that out and be frank about it because the way I look at the market didn't allow me to get aggressively long sure I look at it andSay I wish I was aggressively long but according to my rules of Risk Management it didn't seem prudent this did not seem like a realistic expectation this week a 6% move in the S&P 500 so rather than argue about it or you know talk about how what I could have done differentlyBecause when I look at it I truthfully wouldn't have done anything differently because the risk to reward ratio didn't fit my parameters and that's part of following a process or a system is that you're always going to be missing out on some move for me over the last threeFour months my account has been slowly going up to the right like this I've been making good little profits on the short side and the long side but I didn't get a nice Equity bump this week the way a lot of people have but a lot of those people are still maybe justGetting to break even certainly they're at break even from the high of this year the average participant from there so keep it realistic don't listen to other people on social media who are you know try to G feed that fomo in you and and tell you that you're underperforming andYou know you need to be more like them stick to what you know and by the way this is all just for informational purposes only these are my opinions nothing else make your own decisions about the market I'm not here to provide Financial advice just look at technicalAnalysis and how the money flows in the market that's my specialty the NASDAQ is we know also had a monster move it blasted past the 20-day moving average it blasted past the 50-day moving average it blasted past the anchored vwap from that prior Peak and it's upThrough the anchor from this year's high as well so these things aren't aren't useless you can't look at it that way the proper way to use a moving average to use an anchored V app is not to say I'm going to take action at that levelBut instead to say I'm going to really get more focused more interested at that level so yesterday when we closed here just below that 50-day moving average the trend was clearly still higher I had drawn this line in saying this is a potential level of resistance it had been resistance here support herePotentially resistance again but the market gapped up today and I always say only a fool would get short there because it's a potential level it's not a real level we only know support after the fact that's what I was been saying the last couple weeks and now we onlyKnow resistance after the fact so we look at it and say what has been important to this Market before well we had this High we had a lower high a lower high and a lower high would come in right here we also have don't forgetThis is right now so far it's a great bounce but it's a bounce in a downtrend what's the definition of a downtrend lower highs and lower lows lower highs lower lows that's what we have in the NASDAQ that's what we have in the S&P 500 it doesn't mean it can't turn aroundBut we have lower highs and we have lower lows in these markets so that's one time frames definition right on the daily time frame if you look at the shorter term time frame we have a beautiful clear pattern right in here of higher highs and higher lows what weWant is for those to be in alignment so maybe the NASDAQ starts to pull back like this and then in a week or two's time we build some energy and bust through that level that would be my preferred scenario I'm going to trade what unfolds in front of me I know thatIt's great to see that you know most people say well the market can't survive if Apple's going down Apple reported earnings and their stock sold off but guess what it didn't sold down the market at all it's a market of stocks uh and often times a big one will have anImpact look at this one from failed moves confast moves we say it all the time and here we just slightly undercut that 2022 low and it did in fact turn from there I talk about how this had the potential to be a place to turn from andMaybe getting above here it would have some strength I really wasn't interested in buying it because I thought well it'll probably rally up towards that 20-day moving average and find resistance so instead I missed out on this move I missed out on today's move as well I think a lot of people thoughWho are participating in this move are participating on the wrong side in other words there's a lot of people getting short squeezed in here and if this Market is going to act kind of normal maybe it pushes up through this level a little bit and then starts to digestThese gains and do something like this and maybe then a ShakeOut to doubt people and then perhaps it finds uh buyers along the rising 20-day moving average and then that 50-day moving average flattens out in a a couple weeks and perhaps the Russell 2000 will leadUs into the end of the year the evidence isn't there yet but we always have to keep an open mind and say just because it's been garbage from that July High straight down to this new low for the last 21 months doesn't mean it can't nowTurn into be a w a winner and even maybe a a leader in this market again no indication that it is a leader but we have to keep our mind open and say what potential scenario and then how could I participate in a lowrisk way and have aReasonable place for a stop buying above here with a stop above at that level the 5-day moving average will probably come and look like this this is what we would have happen and then we get back above that 5day moving average we would put an anchor off of this peak right here atAnchored vwap would look like this we would put an anchor off of this low perhaps this little pullback comes down and touches that those are the scenarios that we want to see ideally hold and again they're not meant as a blueprint they're meant as start to think logically about how money flows throughThe market semiconductors came down a lot of people say well they found buyers at the 200 day moving average did they find buyers at 200 day moving average or did they find buyers and bottom at the year-to-date anchor I don't really care which one you choose to believe but IWill say this that earlier this year the 200 day moving average for most of the year has been completely irrelevant to what's been happening in the semiconductors but if you look at the anchored vwap from the beginning of the year that has been much more important IPut more emphasis on it uh the volume weight at average price than I do the 200 day moving average and I think this is a great way to see that right here in this market so massive rally here again I said uh what was this this was88.1% for the week just a huge move and it's possible it can continue it's possible that it will go break this pattern of lower Highs but would that mean we're beginning a new uptrend not to me if we broke above there because what we also need is a higher low so weNeed a pull back where maybe it pulls back all the way down to here and then starts to Rally well then we've got a higher low I would want to be a buyer in here with a stop under there assuming that it's going to find the strength toGo rally up and and uh uh make another new higher low maybe it falls in here buyers near the 20 and 50-day moving average and then gets going that certainly seems reasonable to me so maybe it comes down like this for a couple days next week finds buyers alongThat 5-day moving average something like this maybe crosses below it for a day day and a half and then put an anchor off of this high if this is the high and that's you know that's the big assumption is uh maybe Monday we see another big move up and then we're goingTo have to measure that vwap from a higher high the point is though it's the way that these markets tend to move and we want to be ready for those scenarios biotex uh had been you my line for these the last uh several months has been biotechs continued to do what they betDo best which is to destroy Equity this week they did that for the short sellers the biotechs gained um 11.4% huge move in there um still clearly in a downtrend we've still got a declining 20 50 200 day moving average so we want to look at and say where doesThis potentially run out of steam well we had a prior band of support in here which turned to resistance before that most recent selloff we can take a look at the anchored vew app off of this peak we're right at it maybe off of this peakIf we continue to move higher we've got a declining 50-day moving average I don't want to short at any of those levels I only want to short if I'm inclined to short if it does this and then gets trapped below the 5-day moving average so let's saySay it does this and the 5day moving average starts to flatten out gets breaks below here stop above there and then if it continues to ride the FI below the F day moving average great and if it does this that would be time to cover that short that's the way theCyclical flow of money through the markets in these different uh markets the financials came all the way up and did they they even got through that high so we had a higher high does that mean that we're in uptrend on the shorter term time frame absolutely we're in an uptrend we gained7.3% so just as soon as excuse me just as soon as people were saying the markets are in correct corrective mode and if you recall there was also the uh in particular for the financials all the talk about what the bearish uh uh what do they call it the uh the bearish50-day through the 200 day moving average cross the death cross well where did that death cross occur basically on this day right here so if you sold that day where are you now well you're losing money I think we saw that also in uh where where else did we see that maybeIt was the financials I was thinking of either way we don't listen to those uh you know bullish and bearish crossovers crossovers mean indecision they're not they're certainly not meaningful to a swing Trader which is what I am and based on in in the basis of all my comments here are aroundA swing Trader time frame maybe we do this it doesn't seem likely so I want to look at and say anything is possible in the market but what's most probable and then when I look at that what's most probable how much am I willing to riskHow much do I want to bet that that probability is in fact going to come true because if I'm wrong I don't want to just get crushed and give all my money back instead I want to say what's a reasonable amount where do I admit theMarket is wrong where I admit the market is wrong if I was short would be over here it made a higher high it doesn't mean I would expect this to continue rally but at that point i' say it made a higher high it's time to get out of theShort now over here same thing if we start to make these uh lower lows higher then this uptrend is now in a downtrend know your time frame that's the most important part the energy stocks continue to find buyers at this horizontal area at 85 is and that is theLast time we were here that was the year-to-date anchor in the 200 day moving average and it still is so this is an important level going forward if if you want to be long expecting maybe oil's going to Rally it's clear to know where your risk is if you're an investorYour stop probably goes underneath these two lows that's all I have for now have a good weekend hit the like button if you would please everyone says I hear YouTube videos all the time smash that like button button it helps the algo have a good weekend