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"Bloomberg Crypto" covers the people, transactions, and technology shaping the world of decentralized finance. In the latest ...

You know, you are also involved in you've got your own filing for physical physically backed Bitcoin ETF. Do you think that the excitement there has driven up prices across crypto? I mean, today is a down day, but we're still looking at $29,000 for Bitcoin. Yes, I do think that in June, when BlackRock announced its filing or when it was announced that BlackRock had filed for a Bitcoin ETF, the Bitcoin price did shoot up and but has been fairly stable since then. So I do think it's had an impact, A bigger impact this year was the regional bank crisis. It was very interesting to watch Bitcoin go from 19000 to 30000 right in the middle of that banking crisis as regional banks were going bankrupt. So it was a flight to safety. So I thought that move was just as interesting on a flight to safety. Is buying Bitcoin somehow a flight to safety? Isn't it a little too volatile for that? Well, if you think about it, Bitcoin serves as two kinds of hedges. One is a hedge against inflation and outright confiscation of wealth. The other is against counterparty risk. And I, you know, was when the regional banks started going down this fear sort of, you know, memory. Our memories are fresh with oh eight or nine. The counterparty risk became real. And so there was this flight into Bitcoin, a completely decentralized, transparent network which is not subject to counterparty risk. Kathy So you are in this race. Let's talk about the race a little bit. The first important deadline coming up is August 13th, where the Ark filing the SC is either going to delay it, which we think they'll probably delay it. And then BlackRock is later. You filed before BlackRock but BlackRock came in with the surveillance sharing agreement with Coinbase that was novel. Right now we're looking in the future there's talk of a common clock where the SCC could approve a whole bunch of ETFs at once, putting you on a level playing field with BlackRock and others. What's your take on how this will play out given you filed earlier? I think you're probably right that August 13th will come and go and I think I think the SCC, if it's going to approve a Bitcoin ETF, will approve more than one at once. So then again, because most of these essentially will be the same and it will come down to marketing, communicating the message. You know, we've been putting out our Bitcoin monthly for the for the last year. We are now starting a Bitcoin brainstorming session. Our first one we launched last Thursday. So we're trying to get the word out there that, you know, our research is deep and we've been doing it since 2015 when we gained our first exposure to BTC. We were the first public asset manager to gain exposure to Bitcoin at all in 2015. That's exactly where I want to go. The grayscale Bitcoin trust known by its ticker gbtc. If you look at our W, for example, your ARK next generation Internet ETF. Right now I see GBTC as the third largest holding. If we are in a situation where the SEC does give its blessing for a spot Bitcoin ETF, would you plan to sell out of gbtc and buy one of these physically backed funds? So I cannot talk about what we would and would not do. And in fact, our compliance team is, you know, giving us marching orders not to talk very much about this filing and its aftermath at all. So just the fact that we filed with our partner 21 shares is is as far as I can go. So sorry, Katie. Fair enough. No. I was expecting something along those lines. I am curious to get your take on the regulatory temperature right now, because in addition to this rush of spot Bitcoin ETF filings that we've seen, there's also been sort of a race that's unfolding for an ETHER futures ETF. There's been a ton of filings to that effect and not specific to those funds. But do you sense that the mood, mood music around the SEC and what their appetite to allow these products to launch has changed in the last several months? Well, I think that that the two other branches of government, the judicial branch and the legislative branch are giving the FCC pause because the FCC is losing cases in court having to do with its regulations. Around crypto. That's the first thing. And there are bills that are making their way through the House and are seeing some bipartisan support. So I do believe that. Gary Gensler, I guess last week or ten days ago said something like, Well, you know, I'm not the only one who makes this decision. There are five commissioners. Now, of course, we know they're weighted towards the Democrats, two Democrats, two Republicans. And so one assumes that the way that Gary votes is the way that the FCC will vote. But he seemed to be distancing himself a little bit. And so maybe we can take that as a bit of a clue. We definitely did. We thought that was a good sign. But, you know, we're reading all kinds of tea leaves in this. Let me ask you about Coinbase, because you have increased your position in Coinbase. It's also who your surveillance sharing agreement is with. Also, how much is it? How important is it that Coinbase is a bridge or compliant enough for the SEC in terms of working with traditional finance? Is your bullishness on this stock that they are going to be sort of the traditional finance bridge or is it other you know, you think people are going to continue trading crypto on Coinbase? No actual both. We we think that it is the most regulatory compliant exchange out there and we've been very pleased with how its derivatives exchange in Bermuda has ramped in here. It's very early days, but again, clearly a trusted partner and and we are also seeing that there's more turmoil out there, I guess to be I think that's how you just say the name of the exchange and tether and finance. There are still there are rumblings out there that not is all all is well. And so coin Coinbase is going to be the flight to safety exchange, no doubt about it. And do you think this surveillance agreement with Coinbase are going to be enough to deal with things like price manipulation in this market? I mean, that's been one of the main concerns from the SEC lawyers with with whom we've spoken. Well, what I find so interesting still, and this is why we believe that the FCC will lose the grayscale case, how can you approve a Bitcoin futures ETF and and not a Bitcoin ETF? And and in fact, if you're really thinking about consumer protection, a futures ETF swaps space. So there's counterparty risk there that you would not have with a Bitcoin ETF which is backed 1 to 1 with Bitcoin in Coinbase is called storage. It still confounds me. And not to mention that the point that Eric makes, which is that if there had been an ETF, a lot of people wouldn't have bought Bitcoin at stocks and instead would use the article. Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn is stepping down after more than 13 years at Tesla. Curious to hear your reaction given how long you've been involved in the stock, how long he's been there, does this give you any pause? Well, we all loved Zack and love Zack and think he will do very well wherever he goes. I, I, I know there are rumors out that there are some CTO positions out there which he might like to take, so we will miss him. But his successor has been with Tesla right underneath him since 2018. So he was put through the fires, remember, in 2018, 19. And many, many analysts were saying that Tesla was going bankrupt, too. And so he's been there. He's gone through the fire. And, you know, it's a tough job. It's a tough, tough job. So I I guess 13 years was a really good run for Zach. And I can't say enough good things about him and what he did for Tesla, but I think he trained his successor well. That's great to hear. Do you expect Tesla to build 2 million vehicles this year? I think it's incredible how they've grown production and it looks like they can do that. What are your expectations for their growth from here on out? Well, as you know, we have a five year investment time horizon. And and we do think this cycle for autos is going to get tougher in here generally. But we think just like last year when electric vehicles were up 69% or 65%, something like that, and gas powered vehicles down 7% globally. We think we're going to continue to see that share shift accelerate because. Electric vehicle prices are going to follow the court their costs down in a way that gas powered cars cannot. So we think that electric vehicles will be less expensive and they are better cars than gas powered vehicles. So we think they're going to take tremendous share. And even if the auto market relapses in here, which we think it could, we don't think electric vehicles will relapse. So we think the 1.8 million for this year, which was Elon, said 1.8 to 2 million, they're going to have some shut downs in the third quarter for maintenance and upgrades. And so he lowered he lowered his expectation to the lower end of that range. I think he likes to lower expectations and then be. So I wouldn't be surprised if it's higher than that. BNN Bloomberg New Economy Forum has voiced concerns about the availability of cobalt and lithium, and is there enough to continue making electric cars for the masses, as some producers like GM are building, you know, massive 200 kilowatt batteries for their trucks? Is that a concern for you at all? Do you think Tesla has the production locked in? Well, I know very early on they they said to their suppliers, you know, if if you will build it, we will buy it. So, yes, they've been in a preferred position and probably still are. They're also very smart. Tesla's engineers are very smart. They are engineering cobalt out of the cars. They're doing it for a few reasons. The supply is uncertain and it's very focused in, I guess, the Congo, where there are a lot of environmental and governance and social concerns. So they're engineering it out and they're moving into. And you should on lithium, actually, if you look at the price, it went up tenfold in two years and now it's down about 40% from that peak. I think lithium is one of the most pervasive minerals out there. So we don't think lithium is an issue at all, especially now that the Chinese and the Koreans and all of the U.S. OEMs are are basically telling lithium miners, just just build it and we will take it. So and then the other interesting thing is, again, this is Tesla leading the charge, so to speak, in this category, lithium ion phosphate. So taking out the nickel and other metals that may end up in short supply, especially if we get into very strong cycles and the lithium ion iron phosphate is a much lower priced or will lead to a much lower price car as well. Cathie, real quick, I wanted to get in the superconductor. This is something that's been in our team is getting obsessed about. You are an innovation fund. I'm guessing you're looking at this. How much of this is hype and hope versus a potential legit reality and how do you play it? Well, it was interesting when when the news broke a little more than a week ago and many people just thought it was a fraud. But our chief futurist, Brett Winton, said, wait a minute, this is not a fraud. It can't be a fraud because it's so simple. You you can buy from, you can buy, you can buy phosphorus, copper. And there was one other ingredient there, and you could actually follow their instructions and duplicate this. We're going to find out pretty quickly. And what it does seem is that it is possible. So we went from thinking Friday a week ago, oh, maybe ten, 15% chance to now, while the markets the betting markets are up 40%, I think we're more in the 60% plus range. So and you know, it could it could be the breakthrough we need for quantum computing or at least bringing it into reality from a commercialization point of view sooner than expected or or those high speed trains, it could change so many things, and particularly our electric system where, you know, we lose so much heat in data centers, where we lose so much energy because of the inefficiencies associated with current electricity. Cathy, I promised Florida, but I actually want to start in China and get your current views on what the stock market there looks like because a few years ago you were out and I think you came back. A little bit. And JD.com. What's your current thinking around the equity market in China and what opportunities are there or not? Well, we're we're maintaining our position. Really common prosperity suggests that the government is aiming for for companies not to be too profitable, but to really help the country to expand and make the lives of everyone better, which is noble. That's what we all want is to, you know, shrink the divide between the rich and the poor. We are focused on a few things there. We're focused on the fact that China is exporting deflation. It's down for 5.4%. And it is one reason that we think that the world is going to face more of a deflationary period here than I think most people think. It's also very interesting to watch the yuan. I think that the government would be stimulating more aggressively if the yen were a little stronger and it has been weakening and they're very careful about their currency. So I don't think they're going to be able to stimulate as much as many people might like or expect because the yuan is showing some fundamental weakness here. And you know what's so interesting about that? Sorry, I just want to add an exclamation point here. The fact that they're exporting deflation and they're the yuan is down. That's that's a double whammy. That is that from from from China's point of view, you know, the fact to see deflation as their currency is down, Normally when a currency is down, you see inflation. So, Kathy, we know you moved to Florida from New York City. I believe you were in the Chelsea neighborhood. I visited your office way back in the day. Yes. You're now down in Florida. A lot of asset managers, a lot of people who watch Bloomberg TV are considering moves like this. How has it changed your investing process, if at all? Being there? Are there pros and cons to being in Florida versus in New York City? I guess the the the there's for us no change in our investment process. Covid told us we could work remotely and so we have a hybrid setup, but we do have rotations of all of the teams through Saint Petersburg, Florida, and even more so during the winter, I might add. So that's working out. But I think it's it's it's been a wonderful place for us and it's great to have everyone come together, either in various teams or all together like reunions. So it's working pretty well for us. We only have a few seconds left, so I'll just ask a short question. Elon Musk and Zuckerberg may have a cage match fight. Do you have do you take a side in that in that fight? Do you do you think Musk is up to the task? I whenever he puts his mind to something, I wouldn't I wouldn't bet against him. That's what I'll say. But I did read this morning that he's saying that or tweeting that he has to probably go for a back operation first for something to having to do with his disks. So I would I would hope that he would wait until he's completely on the mend.

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