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The NFT Market Just Worsened – Predicting the Recovery

Leon Abboud
- LUD:
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23
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We May Have Officially Entered a New Stage of the NFT Bear Market

The NFT market has been experiencing a bear market for the past 12 to 18 months, but it seems that we have now entered a new stage of this bear market. This new stage, which I call the NFT winter, is going to be unlike anything we have experienced before. In this article, we will explore why I believe this is the case and what we can expect to happen over the next 6 to 18 months.

The Current State of the NFT Market

Over the past 12 to 18 months, there have always been events happening in the web3 space that kept the NFT market alive and moving. However, recently, we have seen a shift in sentiment and a lack of anticipation for upcoming events. Highly anticipated drops, such as Ether and Azuki Elementos, did not receive the attention and traction that the community was hoping for. This has left the NFT market with a pipeline of emptiness, as there are currently no highly anticipated drops on the horizon.

The Dangers of a Stagnant Market

A stagnant market can be dangerous for projects and ecosystems within the NFT space. Just like algae thrives on quiet waters, a stagnant market can suck the nutrients out of the ecosystem and block sunlight from reaching the projects and brands within it. With the upcoming slow and quiet period in the NFT market, we can expect to see a lot of projects collapsing and ecosystems dying. Movement and excitement are what keep the space alive, and without them, the NFT market is at risk.

The Hype Cycle and the Future of NFTs

To understand when the NFT winter might end, we can look at the hype cycle that every new innovation goes through. The NFT market is currently in the trough of disillusionment, which is the bottom of the bottom. However, the next stage in the hype cycle is the slope of enlightenment, which is a slow and steady evolution of the technology. This is where we start seeing product-market fit and the development of a proper business model around NFT technology.

I am confident and bullish about the future of web3 and NFTs because I know that there are thousands of micro-experiments happening around the world. Different brands and individuals are trying to find the right product-market fit and business model for NFT technology. Companies like Board Ape Yacht Club and Azuki are leading the way in the web3 space, while brands like DraftKings and McDonald’s are testing NFT initiatives in the web2 space.

The next NFT bull market will not be fueled by hysteria like we saw in 2021 and 2022. Instead, it will happen when brands see a functional blueprint for using NFTs within their ecosystem and are willing to invest time, money, and resources into NFT initiatives. This will accelerate the slope of enlightenment and usher in the next NFT bull market.

Conclusion

The NFT market has entered a new stage of the bear market, which I call the NFT winter. We are currently in a period of emptiness and stagnation, but this is not the end of the NFT market. The future of web3 and NFTs is bright, and we can expect to see a functional business model emerge over the next 12 to 18 months. It is during these times of experimentation and evolution that the NFT market will find its footing and reach the plateau of productivity.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the NFT winter?

The NFT winter refers to a new stage of the bear market in the NFT space. It is characterized by a lack of anticipation for upcoming events and a stagnant market. This period can be dangerous for projects and ecosystems within the NFT space.

Q: Why is a stagnant market dangerous for the NFT space?

A stagnant market can lead to the collapse of projects and ecosystems within the NFT space. Without movement and excitement, the NFT market loses its vitality and projects struggle to survive. It is important for the market to have a steady flow of new drops and events to keep the space alive.

Q: When will the NFT winter end?

The NFT winter is expected to end when the market enters the slope of enlightenment stage in the hype cycle. This is where we start seeing product-market fit and the development of a functional business model around NFT technology. It is difficult to predict an exact timeline, but it is anticipated to happen over the next 12 to 18 months.

Q: What can we expect in the future of NFTs?

The future of NFTs is bright and promising. As brands and individuals continue to experiment and find the right product-market fit, we can expect to see a functional business model emerge. This will lead to the next NFT bull market, which will be driven by brands investing in NFT initiatives and integrating them into their ecosystems. The NFT market will continue to evolve and reach its full potential.

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7 Comments

  2. Love the video, great content. 1 correction, BYAC, Azuki and Degods are not building anything. Giving away cheap Chinese plush toys and merchandise is not a business. It’s hopium to keep the idiots who bought overpriced JPEGs engaged, real usecase is in licensing, tokengated access, decentralized ID, erc 6551 enabling parent child relationship, ticketing to name a few. I have followed this space daily for over a year and none of the founders of the aforementioned companies have the technical chops or business acumen to do anything meaningful. My $0.02 🤝

  3. The heart of the matter

    NFTs it has been said is all about community. In the beginning it was as artists and designers had a place that was all about their passion and a place to monetize it. As more projects launched, 10,000 in the month of August last year alone, it became saturated. Projects hung onto their “community” but people buying and selling your NFT does not make a community.

    Corporate brands wanted in but really when I go to McDonald's to buy a quarter pounder having an NFT has little value.

    A few well known founders continued to sell to the same buyers and it has become a snake eating its tail.

    Web 3 and NFts have significant value but no one, not even the apes, have demonstrated a way that an NFT can be used not just for the art but to grow something great.

    The good news, that is about to change. So hang in there Leon, your voice in this space is very important!

  4. This is really good advice Leon . This space is great and needs to hear this and love to hear that you're sticking it out.

    But this space needs to start looking to new projects!

    We can't keep solely relying on these legacy projects.

    IMO: I've seen some new projects that desperately need some more hype that provide more utility, better use case, and just overall better IP's that can go outside of the NFT market when compared to these legacy PFP projects. These stable coins the legacies also try to push aren't the answer to our problems. Its basically treating the NFTs in that collection as a gold standard on a currency that has very limited use case, and it puts unnecessary pressures and stress on the brand itself.

    I've spoken to a couple founder's in these smaller projects and they understand the problem we're in and they're desperately fighting to get out of this, but the bigger influencers in this space only push these legacies and never look to anything new because theyre in this only for themselves, they are geniuinely hurting the market, the legacy projects, and the ecosystem overall. You can't even tell me I'm crazy, because go on Crypto Twitter and you'll see what they tweet about daily (GM's, something about legacy project, complain about it, something about their day). There's very few nowadays in this space like yourself Leon, who geniuinely care about the industry as whole from the Big Project founder to the normal everyday person buying their first NFT.

    If we want this market to flourish again we need to support new projects. It'll create competition and no matter what market or industry your in competition is good it forces everyone to do better.

    Leon, I've been watching your videos for over a year now. Your voice and the knowledge you bring to the space is top tier and carries a lot of weight. I suggest to you and ALL OF US look outside of these legacies and look to the future contenders that want to carry us new heights and make this industry greater than it was before. Back in 2019-early 2022 we would scour Twitter, Discord, Launchpads, Calendars, Instagram, and YouTube to find the next big project. If we something that needed an extra push or some advice to get it to the top we would extend that helping hand to get those new projects to the top. We need a return to that mindset in the entire space and industry, we get these new projects the hype they deserve, the legacy projects will see the competition and do better!

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