Bitcoin Gearing Up For A Green October? [price statistics]

September: A Boring Month for Bitcoin?

September is traditionally considered one of the most boring months in Bitcoin’s history. However, this year, there are some exciting things to look forward to as we analyze September statistics and the upcoming monthly closure. But before we dive into that, let me share a funny story with you.

I am competing in the Crypto Fight Night event in Dubai on November 24th, and my opponent, Trading Lord, recently visited my villa for a promotional shoot. Initially, I had no opinion of him, but his tough guy act and rude behavior made me dislike him instantly. Now, winning the match is not my priority; I just want to hurt him. It’s all love, though, and I hope to see you all there.

Now, let’s focus on the important events happening in September and their potential impact on October.

Quad Witching Analysis

On September 15th, we had the quad witching date, a major expiration event for Bitcoin. This date involves four major expiries: equity options, futures, index options, and index futures. Money managers make significant decisions during this time, which can influence market movements.

While September is statistically a down month for Bitcoin, the period from the quad witching date to the end of the month has historically shown positive gains. Out of the 13 instances analyzed, 10 of them closed with positive returns, averaging over 5.25%. This aligns with Bitcoin’s recent 4.5% gain during this period.

Considering the spot price action and the closure of CME, we can expect a potentially interesting October. The spot price may experience a pump towards the end of the monthly closure, setting the stage for an intriguing month ahead.

Weekly and Monthly CME Analysis

The weekly CME analysis reveals that Bitcoin closed above the 26,450 pivot, indicating a potential upside momentum. The stochastic oscillator is turning upwards for the first time since December 2022, suggesting a bullish trend. Additionally, the volatility represented by the BBWP (Bollinger Bands Width Percentage) is at its lowest point in CME’s history, indicating a potential significant volatility expansion in the future.

Moving on to the monthly CME analysis, Bitcoin reclaimed the 20 simple moving average (SMA), which is a positive sign. The 20 SMA will likely move down in October, providing a potential basing point for Bitcoin’s pullbacks. However, it’s important to note that the 20 SMA currently has a negative slope, which needs to be considered.

HPDR Ranges and Potential Breakout

The HPDR (Historic Price Distribution Range) ranges on the 4-hour timeframe show a potential reversal. Bitcoin recently closed above the top side of the blue 50 range, indicating an early breakout. The bottom side is now at 26,300, while the top side is just below 27,700. If Bitcoin trades above the previous high of 27,500, it could signal a breakout and continuation to the upside, potentially reaching close to 29,000.

However, if Bitcoin loses the 26,300 support, a move back down to the mid-25,000s is possible. The 20 SMA is also moving down, adding to the potential downside pressure. It’s crucial to monitor Bitcoin’s price action and closures to determine the next move.

Stochastic Momentum Analysis

Analyzing the stochastic momentum on different timeframes, we see a mix of bullish and bearish signals. The two-day timeframe remains above 26,400, indicating upside momentum. The daily timeframe is freshly crossed to the upside as long as Bitcoin stays above 26,750. However, the 12-hour and 4-hour timeframes show downside momentum, while the hourly timeframe suggests upside momentum above 26,900.

Considering these mixed signals, we may experience more sideways movement in the short term. The real market action is likely to start on Monday, and the weekend may bring some consolidation.

Conclusion

September may be considered a boring month for Bitcoin, but this year has brought some exciting developments. The quad witching analysis, CME closures, HPDR ranges, and stochastic momentum all provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s potential future movements.

As always, it’s essential to monitor Bitcoin’s price action and closures to make informed decisions. October promises to be an interesting month, and we can expect some significant market movements.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why is September traditionally considered a boring month for Bitcoin?

A: Historically, September has been a month of consolidation and low volatility for Bitcoin. Market participants tend to take a break during this time, leading to less trading activity and fewer significant price movements.

Q: What is quad witching, and why is it important for Bitcoin?

A: Quad witching refers to the simultaneous expiration of four types of derivatives contracts: equity options, futures, index options, and index futures. It is an important event for Bitcoin as money managers make significant decisions during this time, which can influence market movements.

Q: How does the 20 simple moving average (SMA) impact Bitcoin’s price action?

A: The 20 SMA is a widely followed moving average that helps identify trends and potential support or resistance levels. When Bitcoin is above the 20 SMA, it is generally considered bullish, while being below it indicates a bearish sentiment. Traders often use the 20 SMA as a reference point for buying or selling decisions.

Q: What is stochastic momentum, and how can it help predict Bitcoin’s price movements?

A: Stochastic momentum is a technical indicator that measures the strength and speed of price movements. It consists of two lines, %K and %D, which oscillate between 0 and 100. When %K crosses above %D, it suggests a bullish momentum, while a cross below indicates a bearish momentum. Traders use stochastic momentum to identify potential trend reversals and overbought or oversold conditions.

Q: How can the HPDR ranges help in analyzing Bitcoin’s potential breakout?

A: HPDR ranges provide insights into the historic price distribution of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin breaks above the top side of the range, it indicates a potential breakout and continuation to the upside. Conversely, a break below the bottom side suggests a potential downside move. Traders use HPDR ranges to identify key support and resistance levels and anticipate potential price movements.