Bitcoin BTC Price News Today – Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Analysis and Price Prediction!

Bitcoin Market Update: Following the Wave Count Lower

Bitcoin has been experiencing a decline in line with our wave count, signaling a downtrend in the market. While some may question why the sell-off is happening despite no increase in interest rates, it’s important to understand that announcements and external factors don’t always change the underlying trend. In this case, the trend is down.

Currently, Bitcoin is approaching our target range of 24 to 24.5K. It has reached the trend line, indicating a possible reaction. However, it would be ideal to see the price go a little lower before any potential turnaround. The one-hour and four-hour charts show oversold conditions, with a bit of bullish divergence in the latter. But it’s crucial to remember that even in a bullish scenario, price won’t immediately reverse. We need to watch for relevant levels and reactions before assuming a trend shift.

Understanding the Wave Structure and Potential Lows

Analyzing the wave structure, we anticipated one more low, with a target range of 24 to 24.5K. It’s possible that we may even see another low after that. The trend line currently offers some support, but if Bitcoin breaks out of this channel to the downside, the 24K level will become a significant support level. This level corresponds to the golden ratio, the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level.

It’s worth noting that Ethereum is selling off more strongly than Bitcoin, which aligns with our previous analysis that Ethereum would underperform Bitcoin in the coming days and weeks. As we continue to follow the wave count to the downside, it’s important not to panic. The forecasts have consistently pointed towards lower prices, and this correction is necessary to weed out weak hands and pave the way for a stronger market.

Looking for Reversal Signals and Confirmation

In this correction, we’re approaching a situation that we’ve been discussing for weeks. We’re looking for price to be above the 10th of March low, ideally holding the 22K level, which represents the 78.6 retracement. Additionally, the RSI should get close to the 10th of March low, indicating oversold conditions. Ethereum has already achieved this, but Bitcoin still needs to go a little lower. Once these conditions are met, it can be considered bullish, but confirmation from price action is crucial.

It’s important to remember that indicators are just that – indicators. Price always needs to confirm a trend reversal. So, while levels like 24K may offer a good chance for a reversal, it’s essential to wait for a small five-wave move up and a three-wave move down (ABC) to confirm the trend shift.

Trading Strategy and Patience

The most challenging part for many traders will be waiting for the five-wave move up to play out. Impatience often leads to chasing the market, buying at the top, and selling at the end of the correction. To navigate this market effectively, it’s crucial to have a trading strategy in place. Consider getting a position now with a small size if you feel underexposed, but always be mindful of risk management.

For long-term investors, this correction can be an opportunity for accumulation. However, for short-term traders, it’s important to be cautious and wait for confirmation before making any significant moves. Remember, the goal is to let the five-wave move play out and capture the potential profits in the third wave.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q: Why is Bitcoin selling off despite no increase in interest rates?

A: External factors like interest rates don’t always dictate the market trend. In this case, the underlying trend is down, and announcements or news may only cause temporary volatility. It’s important to focus on the overall trend and watch for relevant levels and reactions.

Q: What is the wave count and why is it important?

A: The wave count refers to the analysis of price movements based on Elliott Wave Theory. It helps identify potential patterns and trends in the market. By understanding the wave count, traders can anticipate potential lows and highs, providing valuable insights for trading decisions.

Q: How can I determine if the trend is shifting back to the upside?

A: To confirm a trend reversal, you need to watch for a small five-wave move up and a three-wave move down (ABC). This price action confirms that the trend is shifting back to the upside. Until this confirmation occurs, it’s essential to follow the downtrend and be cautious with your trading decisions.

Q: What levels should I watch for potential reversals?

A: While there are no guarantees, levels like 24K can offer potential reversal points. However, it’s crucial to wait for confirmation from price action and indicators like the RSI. Always remember that levels are just areas of interest, and price needs to confirm the reversal.

Q: How should I approach trading during this correction?

A: It’s important to have a trading strategy in place and practice risk management. Consider getting a position with a small size if you feel underexposed, but be prepared to adjust your position based on market conditions. Patience is key during this correction, as waiting for the five-wave move up to play out can be challenging but rewarding in the long run.

Q: What is the significance of the 10th of March low and the 22K level?

A: The 10th of March low and the 22K level represent important support levels and retracement levels. If price remains above these levels and the RSI gets close to the 10th of March low, it indicates potential bullish conditions. However, confirmation from price action is necessary to validate the trend reversal.

Q: What happens if Bitcoin drops below 22K or even 17.6K?

A: Dropping below 22K would risk invalidation of the bullish scenario, while dropping below 17.6K would suggest new bear market lows. As long as price remains above these levels, there is still potential for a bullish reversal. However, it’s important to monitor the market closely and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.