Crypto Update : What I think is going on – BTC, ETF, Market Analysis, Noodling

Hello hello Ryan here with another uncomplicated

I figured it was about time uh I’ve been watching the crazy moves of this market like I’m sure a lot of you have and I figured I would weigh in and comment on what I see and what I’m thinking and feeling and doing so.

Yeah let’s get into it um at the beginning I want to be really clear about my intentions and my biases and I think that’s really important when you’re watching Youtube or reading x formerly known as Twitter or um even reading articles on coindesk or wherever it might be asking the question why is this author sharing this information and for a lot of people on YouTube they are sharing information because they’re trying to get your views because they’re getting money from ad dollars or sponsors um so they have a vested interest in just having you watch uh people that are let’s call them influencers in the space or um those personalities that are heavily invested in different projects in the market they’re likely telling you a narrative that they are wanting to see come to fruition so I I’ve said this before but it’s just funny you know Michael sailor he’s out selling Bitcoin so hard because his you know he’s invested his entire soul into it right so when I’m hearing a m Michael sailor comment you know his reality is painted through a lens of what he is trying to manifest um but that’s not always truth seeking so I guess what I’ll say is that I’m looking at this I do have some biases I’ll talk about that but you know I just want to know what the hell’s going on and I like untangling the puzzle I like learning the the intricacies and I like seeing the truth even if it goes against what I would like to have happen and so with that being said um I do have a bias in that uh for me just in my own positioning right now uh I was dcing in in this time period and then for my own reasons uh I chose to you know exit a portion of that when things are right around 28,000 so um which is the right move for me and I feel great about it but my bias in looking at the market just so you know is that I’m hopeful for a longer accumulation Zone and for prices to go back down so that I can continue to DCA in and kind of build up my stock piles for another move so I am a bear you know I am looking at this through a lens that wants to see a particular outcome because that’s what I’m betting on but I try not to let that cloud my judgment of taking in new information or um you know balancing all the different noise in the space against what I want to see so you know I’m going to I’m going to offer a couple different scenarios I’m going to tell you the one that I think is most likely but keep that in mind when you’re watching or listening to different people they’re going to be trying to convince you of the thing that they most want to see and it’s important to know that um okay so let’s get into it uh a couple things that I’ve just been following and observing the first is that crypto has this funny way of zigging when you expect it to zag and having having ridden this roller coaster now a number of times it’s really funny that um I I’ve noticed the Confluence of when the voices in my news feed and the news feed that I’m checking the most is I just love trading view trading view is like my place to go look at crypto I don’t go really anywhere else so I’ll fire up trading view you know I’ll look at what is you know the charts I’ll kind of go through the the cryptos I’m interested in and then I’ll just click on the news and I’ll go to crypto and you know I’ll kind of get the news through trading view so you know there’s lots of different personalities here they all have their different take but I I notice that there’s been a shift in the last couple weeks and it’s been all around the ETF and uh there was this leaked you know listing of ibtc on I forget the name of the site that lists these different uh tradable uh ticker symbols but that you know supposedly triggered this big spike yada yada anyway um ETF fever seems to be the the story right now and okay when when I hear the the peanut gallery saying this is a great time to buy things are Off to the Races you know this this is the moment breaking out yada yada those types of stories in my experience so far which has been limited you know the I did buy crypto in 2017 and then I really got involved in 20121 like a lot of other people I know and I bought in right around $42,000 when Tesla bought in that’s when I was like holy I need to be paying attention to this I got the time and the space to to be looking and so I just want to be clear that you know my experience has been when there are these distributive tops when the when the uh accumulators the smart money the the people that are already in the know when they are selling their Holdings is when I feel I hear the most positive news and then conversely when it’s the best buying opportunity is when every all the news is Doom and Gloom and the price is going lower and oh we’re going to break down to 14 ,000 oh we’re going to you know so the fact that right now we’ve had this big surge in price um and I’m hearing all this positive news to me that’s like you know warning signs you know if put it this way by the time you’re hearing good news it’s because someone’s trying to sell you something and unfortunately in crypto except for the long-term hodlers you know all of these little tickers on the side here all of these projects is this game of hot potato where you try and you know pass the bag off to the the bigger fool before the Music Stops so a little bit pessimistic but hey that’s like I think that’s a a reality here um so okay three scenarios the first is the moon Bull Run so you know the ETF is going to get improved and all of these institutional and more traditional investors and asset managers are just going to come rushing into Bitcoin because you know insert next narrative here the dollar is in hyperinflation and yada yada and everyone wants to move to bitcoin well I don’t know about that I I feel like it is a lot more likely that the news about the ETF is timed with this kind of distributive top we’ve already had you know one top two top three tops which is really coincident with the distribution event where we’ve got the buying climax the upth thrust after distribution and the test to see who’s left who’s left to kind of buy this story buy this narrative before we kind of work our way back down I’m not saying that’s exactly what’s happening here but I am weary um because the The Narrative of the ETF getting approved and US blasting off when I look at just a few Indicators I don’t look at a whole bunch of indicators anymore because I’m I’m just really for myself I don’t want to be paying that much attention I’m not doing day trades I’m not doing swing trades I’m really just looking at you know yearly time frames at this point so Couple things here my favorite uh indicators are well one is the volume so when we talk about a bull run you know a bull run really happens let me get rid of all these things I’ve scribbled on the chart here a bull run really happens when You’ve got the volume to support it and if we look back at um you know the 2021 bull run as it was and I like looking on the monthly I mean High Time High time frames guys this gives in my estimation you know some of the the biggest data Confluence of all the factors you know you can see them in the rsis you can see them in the volume and let’s just take a look last Bull Run we had 1 2 3 four five six monthly candles of growth uh green candles on my chart they’re blue Um and that was uh coincident with a move up on the stochastic RSI and a big move up on the I’m using this CB um RSI for kind of the slow moving RSI but you know here is this big swing up six months of sustained uh growth and these Volumes look at these volumes um and look at where we’re at right now so I don’t know if you can see this I wish I could kind of Zoom the volume graph a little bit better but I’ll just try and draw a line you know we’re nowhere close To the volumes that was even you know in the in the midst of like coid for buying and selling you know these are all relative they they get relativized based on what’s on the screen and if I just kind of Zoom this here to let’s just Kind of say all right this is the next Bull Run you know our the volumes that we’re looking at right now are a quarter you know maybe a third of what was kind of um bringing that influx of capital into the market last time so that’s just one you Know very high level in indicator of sorts or just data um the next that I just pay attention to are the RSI and I know these are simple tools but to me I’ve I’ve said this before in this channel the the RSI to me is the W coffe and heartbeat uh yoff you Know primer again is just these uh cycles of accum culation and distribution from oversold to overbought and these are happening on the minute to minute all the way up to the month to month year to year and so when you zoom way out on these charts you know this is The biggest kind of cumulative heartbeat and when I look at the current price action I see that yeah we came down and we we hit what appeared to be a bottom you know so far this is the bottom of this cycle and we’ve had a hug huge swing in the RSI and you know this could be coincident with um you know call it the relief Rally from 20 uh 19 I guess where you know we blasted up and then we kind of came back down um but it does not look like this this moment in time here Um you know I feel like we’ve already kind of paid off this big move to the upside starting in uh December January of 2022 and 2023 you know we we’ve already kind of got to on the biggest time scale um this cross back down now that doesn’t mean that it can’t kind of You know bump and come back up but you know I feel like the momentum has been paid off okay so this is just my first scenario the bull run when I hear it on Twitter when I see oh we’re going to be at 135 by Christmas or people Saying Bitcoin properly should be valued at $100,000 per coin yada yada based on stock to flow model or whatever this is what I’m looking at I’m just I’m just tempering my expectation based on the data that I see here um so the second uh um scenario I guess is the relief rally And I’m just picking up that term because I didn’t even watch the video but I saw um you know still a dude I respect in the space uh blockchain backer um you know again I think his is that that’s what he really really wants you know he’s I’ve been following his Channel for you know three years at this point and I know that you know he’s holding a big bag of xrp and really really wanted to see that huge runup that never came and is just you know sitting and waiting patiently and you know I remember him talking About a relief rally when we were back in here I remember you know so that I’m not calling him out I’m just saying like Okay scenario number two is that you know this is a you know a big run up maybe even to the you know 618 or you Know that kind of a retrace and we’re going to see alt coins and everything else you know pop off and that in my mind is more likely than the Bull Run um and the other uh person that I’ve been following that I highly recommend I really like his content he is Mayfair uh Ventures on trading View and he does live streams you know every couple weeks or so and I just like his he’s been right A lot of the time and his his perspective I think is really grounded in in good principles and he’s been around a long time and so I have Here on my chart something that I’ve just been following for a while based on his um a couple of his videos so let me see if I can find this here yeah so um these probably already need to get uh resized but essentially this is just another kind of hypothesis I’ve been tracking and I think it’s coin coincident with the kind of relief rally um concept so you can stretch these to any um you know amplitude that you want these are kind of based on fibs but the idea is generally that we had an all-time high in November of 2021 um we’ve since come down and kind of put in this bottom and I have another set of Elliot waves here yeah so let me go to the weekly let me zoom in in a little bit so the idea is you know from this bottom we had one two three four five Elliot Waves and then you know we’ve kind of had this triple top which already kind of breaks this a little bit in my mind I was expecting and this is why I sold actually um um yeah and that was my my decision to make and I’m I’m happy for it I’ll you know I talked about that in past videos um but essentially you know a retrace back and the idea is that if this was five Elliot waves then this could also be considered the first wave of a larger five-wave move and so um what I what I gleaned from uh the Mayfair Ventures is like okay let’s treat this as one where might two Trace back down to and then that would give us enough oomph up to a three and probably test the 618 back down to four and um you know then if we went to a fifth wave In this uh Elliot wave set you know we’d be looking at getting just about back to all-time Highs but probably not probably not breaking through and probably then a much larger correction back down and there’s a couple things that are in my mind and and the first is and sorry if This is a long video I’m just going to give you everything I’ve been sitting and stewing about um when I look at my my My overall crypto thesis it is that crypto and the reason I’m still here the reason I’m still interested is that crypto is a place where people can make Gobs and gobs of money and the people that are making gobs and gobs of money are the people that already have gobbs and gobs of money and I think that in 2017 uh that whole bull run let me go to the log scale here where did my little log feel like They changed this view around on me uh where’s my log view anyway uh when I look at the 20 2017 uh cycle this to me looks a lot like what we would see in a smaller capped coin uh this kind of parabolic runup followed by you know a couple ABC Waves back down there might be kind of a a relief rally of sorts that that happens after the bounce but if I brought up the chart for any number of altcoins in the last Market cycle you’ll see the same kind of parabolic runup and then it crash back down then it just kind of goes Flatline until the next cycle and I think that this was um really early you know institutional people were were taking a look but mostly consumers mostly um you know the the smaller kind of uh you know hobbyist Etc and then because it’s this four cycle we had this Big range when there was enough that could be accumulated by the smart money the big players that the next uh cycle we had was was very different much more sophisticated much more mature much more like you would see in Forex or stock market instead of just the run up and The Crash back down we had this huge runup we had the whole white coffee and distribution I mean that’s the whole reason why you’re watching this channel is because of you know talking about this cycle and how well it was executed I mean this is this is institutional Moneymaking at its most refined and so you know in this past cycle the you know distribution and then the redistribute or and then the accumulation and then the the moves that have played out are significantly different so I’m trying to all of this is just to say I’m trying to Temper my previous you know looking at the last three cycles and saying all right what’s likely to happen here I think I think we can expect a lot more sophistication and a lot more um I guess smaller time frame not quite I was going to say Shenanigans but it’s just like you know Money being made more often through more moves more kind of little plays you know think of it that way than sort of this Flatline crawling and where’s my chart where I’ve got the um my charts are so covered with crap it’s almost embarrassing I just want to find One of these here oh it’s the BLX so the BLX here I’ve got um the havingsex movement um when this is on log here we go log rithmic you know we can kind of see the relative volatility a little bit clearer so this is kind of a nice view But um my point is there there is just a a lot more kind of Market moves you know Market maker moves happening here and ultimately um I think this is also a Mayfair Ventures quote the market is an algorithm seeking liquidity is really what’s happening and then mapped on top Of that we’ve got this larger time frame kind of fouryear narrative that is so valuable so useful rinse and repeat I I still firmly believe that the story of Bitcoin and crypto is up and to the right and that’s exciting I just you know I wanted to make a comment in this Time period to just like temper expectations for myself and just remind myself that I have more time um you know crypto is isn’t going anywhere without you and the biggest thing that I I have just come to see is that the strategies that do the best are just the big zoomed Out picture DCA in or hodling but not getting you know hung on the nuances of today’s news or you know the ETF is going to be the thing that blasts this thing off or um yeah that’s kind of where I’m at and it’s funny because I I actually recorded Another video two days ago where I was a lot more more just like this is what I think is happening I think it’s coming back down I think we’ve you know kind of paid off this um this momentum wave you know the volume isn’t there I think this Is a test I think that you know this is going to kind of crack back down actually my expectation this is what I think could be wrong but I think that we’re going to get news pretty shortly that the ETF is not approved and that they’re going to wait and then all of this kind of call it what you would artificial you know buildup then becomes that beautiful W cofan turn turning around in the narrative to come back down and to continue accumulating and to continue building that base which again is best for everyone unless you’re the You know kind of the person that’s getting suckered into the narrative at the 11th hour so um last little things I’ll say is you know as I was getting ready to post that other video and I’m like it it it sucks but I care I care if If I’m right or wrong I care what people think about me you know I try not to but it will keep me up at night if I’m like you know I I I went out on a limb I made these statements I’ve only really been like majorly wrong once before uh As far as like the YouTube goes and that was in this moment here where I was really sure that you know this was such a little um repeat at just a smaller scale that I thought we were going to have another breakdown and instead it popped up caught me with my Pants down um you know I hated that feeling and so I was nervous to come out here and just be like yep triple Top This is why coffee in you know distribution fueled by ETF whatever and that this all just plays into um this type of a accumulation range that you Know more time for the bigger players to get their positions ready means a bigger blast off once it happens I want the price to go back down I want to be dcing in longer I don’t want to see this take off to 50,000 and I’m just going to be Sitting there like well that’s silly um those are my biases so anything else I want to share I think that’s it um yeah I I’ll also just say that you know I’m recording this from my art studio and a lot of the reason why I haven’t been posting videos or you know Really caring about YouTube is that I’ve got my life kicking ass right now I um about a year ago almost exactly a year ago I started this book which I highly highly recommend um the artist’s way and I was already getting back into painting but this just gave me permission to Really focus on who I am at my core and what I love in this life and now I’m here I’m surrounded by all of these um paintings that I’ve done I’ve been selling them for in some cases thousands of dollars and I have a whole little you Know thing that’s happening so um yeah I’ll give you a a little tour at other points in time but yeah I don’t know liveing the dream um and I’ll I’ll try and find a way to uh offer prints and and other stuff because I think you’re going to like the the Things I do it’s all really cool uh yeah so that’s all I got I love you all and until next time cheers.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q: What biases does the author have when analyzing the market?

A: The author admits to having a bias towards a longer accumulation zone and lower prices, as they want to continue dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and build up their stockpiles for another move. They consider themselves a bear and acknowledge that their bias may influence their analysis, but they strive to remain open to new information and balance it against their desired outcome.

Q: What are the three scenarios the author presents?

A: The author presents three scenarios: the moon bull run, the relief rally, and a larger correction. The moon bull run scenario involves the approval of the ETF and a rush of institutional and traditional investors into Bitcoin. The relief rally scenario suggests a significant run-up, possibly to the 618 level, followed by a correction and a test of the 618 level. The larger correction scenario anticipates a retrace back to the previous bottom and a potential move back up to test the all-time highs before a more significant correction.

Q: What indicators does the author use to analyze the market?

A: The author primarily looks at volume and RSI (Relative Strength Index) as indicators. They compare the current volume levels to previous bull runs and note that the current volumes are significantly lower. They also analyze the RSI and observe that the momentum from the previous move up has likely been paid off. These indicators contribute to their cautious outlook on the market.

Q: What is the author’s overall perspective on the crypto market?

A: The author believes that crypto is a place where people can make significant amounts of money, but they also acknowledge the involvement of smart money and the game of passing the bag to the next investor. They emphasize the importance of taking a zoomed-out perspective and not getting caught up in short-term news or narratives. They remain optimistic about the long-term potential of crypto but temper their expectations based on their analysis of the current market conditions.

Q: What personal development journey has the author been on?

A: The author shares that they have been focusing on their art and painting, which has been a fulfilling and successful endeavor for them. They recommend a book called “The Artist’s Way” and express their happiness and contentment with their current life situation.