Bitcoin Will Be Tested Today [price statistics]

Bitcoin Continues Downside in the Short Term

Bitcoin is experiencing a continuation of the downside that was predicted in yesterday’s analysis. In the short term, the daily HPDR range indicates a balancing point around $27,000. Since Bitcoin closed below this range, it is likely that we will see further downside. However, it’s important to note that this analysis is focused on the short term and not the long term.

In order for a long-term bearish scenario to be more applicable, several other factors would need to occur. For now, it seems that this is just another opportunity within the current market conditions. The bottom side of the current 50% range lows is around $25,400, so Bitcoin could potentially reach this level. However, anywhere within this range is fair game for a potential drop.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin manages to reclaim the $27,500 region or trade back above yesterday’s high, it would be a positive sign. A closure above $29,000 would be even better. However, if Bitcoin were to start closing below $25,400 or trade below September lows, it would indicate a more bearish long-term outlook, potentially leading to a drop to $23,000.

Thursday’s Bearish Trend for Bitcoin

Thursdays have traditionally been the most bearish day for Bitcoin, with a 37.5% probability of closing negatively. This is higher than any other day of the week, except for Tuesdays, which have a 60%+ probability of closing negatively. Although Tuesday did not see a significant downside, it’s worth noting that Thursday is statistically more likely to continue the downside trend.

The average loss on Thursdays for Bitcoin is -1.86% when considering only days that close negatively. This means that, on average, Bitcoin could potentially drop to around $26,000. However, it’s important to remember that this is just an average, and there can be variations within this range.

Stochastic Momentum and Potential Bearish Scenarios

Looking at the 5-day timeframe, there are some concerning signs that could indicate a more bearish scenario. If Bitcoin were to close below $25,750, it would be a cause for concern. However, it’s important to note that this is not the main disposition and there are other factors to consider.

The 2-day timeframe is also showing a potential downside crossover, which is another concerning sign. The daily timeframe is also diving below $28,000, indicating a bearish trend. The 12-hour timeframe is weak, and the 6-hour timeframe is also showing signs of weakness. The 4-hour and hourly timeframes are above certain levels but still appear weak.

If Bitcoin manages to bounce back above yesterday’s high, it could indicate another higher low on the daily timeframe. However, for now, the momentum and probabilities favor the downside in the near term.

Weekly Outlook and Correlation with Other Markets

Bitcoin is still being rejected at the white 200 simple on the weekly timeframe, which is a significant resistance level. There are also some indications of bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe, although these should not be considered major continuation plays.

It’s worth noting that Bitcoin’s correlation with other markets, such as the Dixie and traditional markets, seems to have diminished. While the Dixie is experiencing a reversal and the NASDAQ is also reversing, Bitcoin remains relatively stagnant. This lack of correlation may contribute to the current boredom in the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is the short-term outlook for Bitcoin?

The short-term outlook for Bitcoin suggests a continuation of the downside. Bitcoin closed below the daily HPDR range, indicating a balancing point around $27,000. As long as Bitcoin remains below the average of the range, which is yesterday’s high at $27,500, the probabilities favor the downside.

2. Is Thursday a bearish day for Bitcoin?

Yes, historically, Thursdays have been the most bearish day for Bitcoin. There is a 37.5% probability of Bitcoin closing negatively on Thursdays. This is higher than any other day of the week, except for Tuesdays, which have a 60%+ probability of closing negatively.

3. What are the potential bearish scenarios for Bitcoin?

There are several potential bearish scenarios for Bitcoin. If Bitcoin closes below $25,750 on the 5-day timeframe, it could indicate a more bearish trend. Additionally, if Bitcoin closes below $28,000 on the 2-day and daily timeframes, it would confirm a bearish trend. A drop below $25,400 or trading below September lows would further support a bearish long-term outlook.

4. Is Bitcoin correlated with other markets?

Currently, Bitcoin’s correlation with other markets, such as the Dixie and traditional markets, seems to have diminished. While the Dixie and NASDAQ are experiencing reversals, Bitcoin remains relatively stagnant. This lack of correlation may contribute to the current boredom in the market.

5. What is the long-term outlook for Bitcoin?

The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is still uncertain. While there are indications of a potential higher low forming, Bitcoin’s rejection at the white 200 simple on the weekly timeframe and the presence of bearish divergence suggest a cautious approach. A drop below $25,400 or trading below September lows would indicate a more bearish long-term outlook.